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Communication in Biomathematical Sciences
Published by Indonesian Biomathematical Society
ISSN : -     EISSN : 25492896     DOI : 10.5614/cbms
Core Subject : Social,
Social Sciences
Full research articles in the area of Applications of Mathematics in biological processes and phenomena
Arjuna Subject : Matematika - Matematika Terapan
Articles 6 Documents
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Search results for , issue "Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)" : 6 Documents clear
The Effects of Fogging and Mosquito Repellent on the Probability of Disease Extinction for Dengue Fever Glenn Lahodny Jr.; Mona Zevika
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.1

Abstract

A Continuous-Time Markov Chain model is constructed based on the a deterministic model of dengue fever transmission including mosquito fogging and the use of repellent. The basic reproduction number (R0) for the corresponding deterministic model is obtained. This number indicates the possible occurrence of an endemic at the early stages of the infection period. A multitype branching process is used to approximate the Markov chain. The construction of offspring probability generating functions related to the infected states is used to calculate the probability of disease extinction and the probability of an outbreak (P0). Sensitivity analysis is shown for variation of control parameters and for indices of the basic reproduction number. These results allow for a better understanding of the relation of the basic reproduction number with other indicators of disease transmission.
Quantitative Measure to Differentiate Wicket Spike from Interictal Epileptiform Discharges Suryani Gunadharma; Ahmad Rizal; Rovina Ruslami; Tri Hanggono Achmad; See Siew Ju; Juni Wijayanti Puspita; Sapto Wahyu Indratno; Edy Soewono
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.2

Abstract

A number of benign EEG patterns are often misinterpreted as interictal epileptiform discharges (IEDs) because of their epileptiform appearances, one of them is wicket spike. Differentiating wicket spike from IEDs may help in preventing epilepsy misdiagnosis. The temporal location of IEDs and wicket spike were chosen from 143 EEG recordings. Amplitude, duration and angles were measured from the wave triangles and were used as the variables. In this study, linear discriminant analysis is used to create the formula to differentiate wicket spike from IEDs consisting spike and sharp waves. We obtained a formula with excellent accuracy. This study emphasizes the need for objective criteria to distinguish wicket spike from IEDs to avoid misreading of the EEG and misdiagnosis of epilepsy.
Peristaltic-Ciliary Flow of A Casson Fluid through An Inclined Tube Saravana Ramachandran; Kuppalapalle Vajravelu; K.V. Prasad; S. Sreenadh
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.3

Abstract

The paper is concerned with the peristaltic-ciliary transport of a viscoplastic fluid (Casson fluid) through an inclined cylindrical tube. The peristalsis-cilia induced motion is analysed in the moving frame of reference under the lubrication approximations. Solutions to the flow characteristics petering to yielded and unyielded regions are obtained. The effects of various physical parameters on the axial velocity, the pumping characteristics, the pressure rise, and the frictional force over one wavelength, along with the trapping phenomenon are presented through graphs. Further, the peristaltic flow and peristaltic-ciliary flow results are compared. It is noticed that the axial velocity and the size of trapping bolus in the unplug flow region decrease with an increase in the yield stress. In addition, the axial velocity and the axial pressure gradient in the peristaltic-ciliary pumping are higher than those in the peristaltic pumping.
A Nonlinear Observer to Estimate the Effective Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases Agus Hasan
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.4

Abstract

In this paper, we design a Nonlinear Observer (NLO) to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) of infectious diseases. The NLO is designed from a discrete-time augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. The observer gain is obtained by solving a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The method is used to estimate Rt in Jakarta using epidemiological data during COVID-19 pandemic. If the observer gain is tuned properly, this approach produces similar result compared to existing approach such as Extended Kalman filter (EKF).
A Game Dynamic Modeling Framework to Understand the Influence of Human Choice to Vaccinate or to Reduce Contact with Mosquitoes on Dengue Transmission Dynamics Meksianis Z. Ndii
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.6

Abstract

Strategies for reducing dengue incidence are by minimizing the contact between mosquitoes and human or the use of vaccine. However, the candidate of dengue is not perfect and potentially results in more secondary infection cases.This leads to the question which strategy should be decided by individuals to reduce the chance for being infected by dengue. A game-dynamic modeling framework by coupling epidemic and behavior model has been constructed to study the effects of human decision making behavior on dengue transmission dynamics. We also consider strategies as time-dependent controls and estimate the parameter values against data of dengue incidence in Kupang city, Indonesia. Parameter estimation gives the reproduction number of 1.17 which indicates the possibility of outbreak occurrence. When the efficacy of reduced contact with mosquitoes is low, the use of vaccination is the best option to reduce dengue incidence. The efficacy of reduced contact with mosquitoes should be at high level to get higher reduction in dengue incidence if no vaccine is available yet. An optimal control approach suggests that a higher level of vaccination rate and the reduced contact with mosquitoes is required to reach optimal reduction in dengue incidence. However, solutions from epidemiological-behavior model showed that individuals are likely to choose one strategy only which has higher cost and the probability of perceived efficacy. The implementation of vaccination helps in reducing dengue incidence. However, understanding the effects of dengue vaccine on secondary infections is required before the delivery of such intervention.
Investigating the Impact of Social Awareness and Rapid Test on A COVID-19 Transmission Model Muhammad Afief Balya; Bunga Oktaviani Dewi; Faza Indah Lestari; Gayatri Ratu; Hanna Rosuliyana; Tama Windyhani; Zawir Rifqa Fadhlia; Brenda M. Samiadji; Dipo Aldila; Sarbaz H. A. Khoshnaw; Muhammad Shahzad
Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Vol. 4 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Indonesian Bio-Mathematical Society

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/cbms.2021.4.1.5

Abstract

In this article, we propose and analyze a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission among a closed population, with social awareness and rapid test intervention as the control variables. For this, we have constructed the model using a compartmental system of the ordinary differential equations. Dynamical analysis regarding the existence and local stability of equilibrium points is conducted rigorously. Our analysis shows that COVID-19 will disappear from the population if the basic reproduction number is less than one, and persist if the basic reproduction number is greater than one. In addition, we have shown a trans-critical bifurcation phenomenon based on our proposed model when the basic reproduction number equals one. From the elasticity analysis, we have observed that rapid testing is more promising in reducing the basic reproduction number as compared to a media campaign to improve social awareness on COVID-19. Using the Pontryagin Maximum Principle (PMP), the characterization of our optimal control problem is derived analytically and solved numerically using the forward-backward iterative algorithm. Our cost-effectiveness analysis shows that using rapid test and media campaigns partially are the best intervention strategy to reduce the number of infected humans with the minimum cost of intervention. If the intervention is to be implemented as a single intervention, then using solely the rapid test is a more promising and low-cost option in reducing the number of infected individuals vis-a-vis a media campaign to increase social awareness as a single intervention.

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